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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (7534)	11/23/2001 8:57:16 AM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2001 Employment fell sharply in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 5.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 415,000 over the month, by far the largest of three consecutive monthly declines. The job losses in October were spread across most industry groups, with especially large declines in manufacturing and services. The labor market data from the household and payroll surveys for the month of October are the first data from these surveys to reflect broadly the impact of the terrorist attacks of September 11. The labor market had been weakening before the attacks, and those events clearly exacerbated this weakness. It is not possible, however, to quantify the job-market effects of the terrorist attacks. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) The number of unemployed persons increased by 732,000 to 7.7 million in October. The unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, the highest level since December 1996. Since October 2000, when both measures had reached their most recent lows, the unemployment level has risen by 2.2 million and the rate by 1.5 percentage points. (See table A-1.) The unemployment rates for most of the major worker groups--adult men (4.8 percent), adult women (4.8 percent), whites (4.8 percent), blacks (9.7 percent), and Hispanics (7.2 percent)--rose in October. (See tables A-1 and A-2.) The number of newly unemployed persons, those unemployed for less than 5 weeks, rose by 401,000 to 3.2 million in October. (See table A-6.) The number of unemployed job losers not on temporary layoff grew by 518,000 over the month and has increased by 1.4 million since last December. (See table A-7.) Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) Total employment dropped by 619,000 in October to 134.6 million, seasonally adjusted, and the employment-population ratio fell by 0.4 percentage point to 63.3 percent. Since January, employment has fallen by about 1.4 million, and the employment ratio has declined by 1.2 percentage points.

To: LTK007 who wrote (7534)	11/25/2001 4:19:17 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Jake Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Indices: Current Readings of Trader Sentiment: S%P 68% bullish 3dy mov ave, 70% 5dy mov ave, 74% 9dy ave. Nasdaq 64% bullish 3dy mov ave, 68% 5dy, 73% 9dy. 3 Indicator Ave of Consensus Inc, AAII & Market Vane varies between 20% and 60% bullish: has risen to 55% bullish. Currently doing weekly analysis, but above overbought consensus is complicated by 1yr Nasdaq Business Sentiment rising to a new high for the current uptrend. It leads by 2 1/2 to 5 weeks. The DSI's on futures markets are considered fully priced at $1500-1750/yr, I believe, but are liberally discounted. When I renewed my subscription early a few months ago, I believe I paid about $500/yr. The Nasdaq DSI, is one of the only Nasdaq sentiment readings available. These indicators are great for accurately timing a buy or sell decision, but I've learned the hard way that they're only useful if one is correct about the underlying intermediate term trend, or if the underlying trend is neutral. Included are Nikkei sentiment, T-Bond sentiment and sentiment re various commodities.

To: LTK007 who wrote (7534)	11/25/2001 4:47:56 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Coming Correction: I'm currently using 1yr Nasdaq Business Sentiment as my primary leading indicator & it leads by 2 1/2 to 5 weeks. Generally, my contrarian indicators show a Market (S&P and Nasdaq) that's quite overbought, but during the year I've been using 1yr Nasdaq Bus Sent, I've found that it's almost impossible to get a correction of over 10% while it's still rising. Not sure how or when the divergent signals will be resolved, but it doesn't seem likely that we can go down 10% unless/until 1yr Nasdaq Bus Sent drops first. For the past week, it rose to a new post-Sept high.