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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (24685)	11/27/2001 11:54:13 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Treasuries not getting a bid again today. Even w/ the sell-off in stocks. Not looking bullish for them in the ST. LT- You are probably correct, there is a very LT downward trend in rates. May last for another decade or more. Here's a very Long Term look- cpcug.org Interestingly- note the periods in which Bond rates fell during the past century. The 1920 to 1946 period of falling rates was only bullish for stocks during the first 10 yrs. cpcug.org Same type of reaction is seen to rising rates- the first segment of rising rates, from '46 to '66, was bullish for stocks, while the 2nd segment was bearish. We've now had a long segment of falling rates which was bullish. This has all followed Kondratieff theory pretty well. Hence from our 5th grade standardized test... Determine the next in the series: Falling rates & rising stocks, Falling rates & falling stocks, Rising rates & rising stocks, Rising rates & falling stocks, Falling rates & rising stocks, ....... That's right, falling rates and falling stocks. Of course that's a LT look, & doesn't tell us squat about what may happen over the next 6-12 months. Given that rates have fallen so much the past yr. already, and we've gotten a clear reversal- I'm expecting a retrace of some of that- so I'm avoiding bonds for a few more months. Regards, TW