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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (11267)	11/24/2001 12:14:50 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<This from somebody who is happy to use wild analogies!! In this case, your analogy doesn't fit the reality of what happens.> Oh really?? Can you elaborate?? :) I think the decay of economic and political systems through history has been quite observable! It is also observable in shorter term less dramatic cycles as well. Of course you're right, it couldn't be scientifically proven so I suppose one could ignore or pigeion hole a universal principle that touches all. <Okay, I stretched the humans reverting to 'normal' a bit too far to be intelligible. Try this. Humans never did revert to the "normal" state of being illiterate [which they nearly all were up until 100 years ago]. Computers never did revert to the 'normal' state of Pentium 286 ASICs and 20 megabytes of memory. > "never" isn't appropriate here... 100 years is statistically insignificant... as pointed out by your post. Computers never did have a 'normal' state, they are simply manufactured items... the components involved will return to their natural state I suppose in some dump in a couple thousand years. I'm afraid you won't last so long. :) <We are off on an adventure. We don't know where we're going, but we're on our way.> Wise words... let's go. DAK PS... thanks for the acticle... I agree with some of what was on your page.. except he's wrong, it was a bubble... whatever that is :) Interesting that these types of theories pop up when supported by real time observations.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (11267)	11/24/2001 11:32:45 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I don't buy everything Kurzweil says but your post makes some interesting points which show it makes sense to take an economic approach rather than what I'd call the accounting type approach I see a lot of the doom and gloom people taking. For example, accounting tells us that the net worth of the company is the sum of the equity capital raised and the retained (comprehensive) profits. Not even adjusted for inflation... very backward looking. Not necessarily much of an indication of what a company is really worth. But many are still concerned about price to book ratios etc.