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Strategies & Market Trends : Let's Talk Technical Analyisis (TA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (58)	11/24/2001 12:14:29 PM
From: Brandon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 178

A 2B top or bottom pattern can give you a good trade near the top or bottom of a move. In his book "Trader Vic", Victor Sperandeo states that "In an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and then the prices drop below the previous high, the trend is apt to reverse. The reverse holds true for an uptrend" This is taken directly from Trader Vic, Methods of a Wall Street Master. I have also found that, similarly, if a stock is in an uptrend and can not make a new high, then reverses and falls below the prior pivot low you can get a good short..though the Risk to Reward tends to be better with the 2B. I have found both to work profitably. I like to use the 2b on hourly charts which will usually set up a trade that lasts between half a day and 2 1/2 days. The setup is over all pretty profitable, though its going to be wrong more than right and this gives some people a lot of problems with in themselves about the trade. Brandon

To: Chris who wrote (58)	11/25/2001 12:21:54 AM
From: MechanicalMethod	Respond to of 178

Contra-trend follows current direction while going against trend. Point and figure always shows current direction within it's parametric tolerances. Swing always shows current direction. Some directional setups consistently indicate reversal is imminent or already in progress. Trend is useful to estimate how much follow through to expect.

To: Chris who wrote (58)	11/25/2001 3:47:06 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 178

Trading Against The Market... ********************************** Chris: I have found that the odds are better to trade with the prevailing trend... In up markets long... In down markets short... Using extremes, trying to counter trend trade during the last 12 to 15 months would have emptied a lot of pockets... I'd rather look for bottoms and tops and go with the prevailing trend... Right now the trend is still up from the recent lows... So, I'm long... If it reverses, I'm short... Much better odds that way... Jim

To: Chris who wrote (58)	11/26/2001 2:30:24 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Respond to of 178

Hello Chris, Take a peak at Krausz's end of day work: fibonaccitrader.com Reading the free trader journal will provide a nice overview of his basic system. The weekly chart establishes the basic trend (as I believe it should) for daily investing/trading. To swing up or down takes two higher highs or lows. He sells a program that draws in all the swinglines -- or if you're too tight like me<g>, it's easy to spot two higher highs or lows. Krausz wants peaks to pass previous peaks for an uptrend to start or valleys to pass previous valleys for a downtrend. Pull up the 100 stocks in the NDX (what better way to see if something picks uptrending stocks in a downtrending index). On the daily charts put in a 20 dsma and a 150 dsma. On the weekly put in a 4 bar sma and a 30 bar sma. Start flipping. Notice on the weekly charts that very often when the 4 bar passes through the 30, (on the daily the 20 thru the 150) it meets the criteria that Krausz has established for an uptrend (peak passing the previous peak). Then, if the weekly chart is uptrending, you can look for daily swing charts that meet his buying criteria. Krausz has two basic buy setups. If the weekly is uptrending, then buy 1) an upswing when the daily close is a couple of ticks above the 3 day ma of the highs, or 2) a penetration of a previous peek. Try this basic scan for 1 above. (Scans for daily charts that were in a Gann downswing and have just swung up. You must visually determine if they have passed the previous peak and are uptrending on their daily chart. If the weekly is up -- that is usually the case.) (H3 > H2 AND H3 > H1 AND L3 > L2 AND H2 < H1 AND L2 > L1 AND H1 < H AND L1 < L AND (C + .25) > AVGH3.1) OR (H4 > H3 AND L4 > L3 AND H3 > H2 AND L3 > L2 AND H2 < H1 AND L2 < L1 AND L2 < L AND H1 < H AND (C + .25) > AVGH3.1) AND AVGC20 > AVGC150 I've experimented with numerous scans and this catches the majority of Gann downswings swinging up off the bottom. Short scan is reversed. Have combined them with P&F charts for price objectives. Stops can be with the P&F chart or as Krausz details. If you experiment with it and find a better scan for determining a weekly peak passing the previous peak -- pass it back (anyone?) Here's a few from Friday: SWTX, ASA, CTEC, WPS, CTU, MATK, TCT, G, etc etc. There were 26 in all. Take care, Eric