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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keithcray who wrote (33435)	11/24/2001 11:38:33 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

9-11, as a fellow poster on another thread pointed out, dried up the institutional shorts. Perhaps the rally was extended by pension fund rebalancing, but I do not see a lower bottom ahead unless some fresh terrorist atrocity of greater dimension occurs. It is a hopeful sign to me to read something so bearish as that Trimtab outlook, however, because it means money to buy is still being withheld. Since 9-18, Sept saw one 2-day-consecutive drop in NASDy, Oct saw one 3-day-consecutive drop, and, not counting drops of 2 pts or less, November has seen just one 2-day-consecutive drop. All other drops were one day deals. That's a pretty impressive bull record, and obviously, it cannot last. Dipping into earnings-warnings season is not an unreasonable guess. Dipping on post-OBL-capture news is also a reasonable anticipation following a spike upward. There are, however, many individual stocks that will hit fresh bottoms, but that can be accomodated without dragging the indexes to those new depths. The fresh talk today on the foreign front suggests our anti-terror effort will shift to Sudan, Somalia and Yemen soon. That level of government spending, coupled with low oil prices and low interest rates, provides plenty of impetus to maintain an overall bullish outlook, while recognizing the inevitably of sharp dips here and there, particularly within the next 3 weeks, and possibly into mid-January. I maintain that the serious bottom retest awaits us in June-July. Still, right now, I keep my powder dry more days than I trade. I've found great success trading large 1 to 3 times weekly versus constant attempts to shave long or short, as some prefer. I do expect to hit a higher high on this run, sometime this week. For the stronger fundamentally stocks - most of whom are above 1/1 prices - good dips will be great opportunities to reload. For the others, look out below and 50dma will be of little use. jmo-kev