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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (4374)	11/24/2001 6:34:58 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

isopatch, Currently we are in an ENSO neutral state, likely transitioning from a La Nina to an El Nino over the next 2-6 months. This follows three years of La Nina (though last years LaNina was prematurely announced dead, it came back, weakly). A weak La Nina and a negative NAO, which we also had last winter, can make for some cold weather also, which we had last NOV/DEC. But the tendency of the weather is to maintain the previous ENSO system "symptoms" for awhile after it expires, hence our lack of onset of colder than normal temperatures, yet, as the effects of the rejuvenated La Nina and some other factors, from spring/summer, wear off. Here is the current status: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov In addition to this transition, the QBO, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is also transitioning at the same time. These two transitions are likely to make JAN FEB a humdinger of a winter for the east. Other indicators, from sunspots to Atlantic temperature zones and salinity, are also leaning toward a cold mid to late winter. Natural indicators are in agreement, though I did have some that indicated a possible early onset, but these paused for a few weeks, diminishing the early onset and that was covered in previous forecasts. Again as I said before, we should cold/warm cycle with the cold cycles gaining strength into the holidays. Around then we will have onset of a majority of colder than normal temps. Anyway, as I said before, if the NAO cooperates, then make sure there is plenty of fuel in the tank, wood by the hearth and your snow blowers are gassed up, ggg! Having said all that, I am going to treat myself to a reading of Joe Bastardi's forecasts, which I have been avoiding to prevent any influence on my own. Best Regards, Roebear

To: isopatch who wrote (4374)	11/24/2001 6:55:39 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Here's Joe's forecast: wwwa.accuweather.com We disagree a bit on a few things, but agree on more than disagree, the temps are close, my weighting is larger and covers more of the East. I'd also move the heavy (150%) snow band up a few hundred miles, say State College PA to Boston. Not sure about Philly/DC, but would say more than likely. We'll see, Joe's purdy darn good, especially with the NAO. I'm sure Joe could care less about my hex sign forecast, ggg.

To: isopatch who wrote (4374)	11/24/2001 8:23:49 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Ice-sopatch, right on! Great news .... It's freezing over nicely here in Edmonton - it snowed a couple of inches (that's 5cm, Kastel), the drillers will be happy, so will the stocks in my portfolio. I was out today looking at real estate, yikes! Mighty expensive out there especially for new homes and there isn't much available in the resale category to offset the pricing. I'm certainly going to wait this one out, I'm sure at $10 oil there will be a distressed sale or two. Regards; Frank P.