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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lh56 who wrote (7807)	11/25/2001 1:00:36 AM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

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To: lh56 who wrote (7807)	11/25/2001 11:22:27 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

i think intel is also presenting at csfb tuesday morning. i definitely want a bunch of dry powder available by close of business monday Larry, I am not expecting much out of this conference because their mid-quarter business update is sometime in the first week of December. I doubt they will offer any guidance on this quarter...but you never know. My points Intel have been the following: -they set such a low bar for themselves for December quarter (flat with September) even though they admitted that their data showed normal seasonal uptick. -Even if XP is not a big driver of sales, it will add at least a small boost in a seasonally strong quarter...and that is a set up increasing guidance. -PC has not hit saturation levels on a worldwide scale yet. There is strong demand in the emerging economies like China/India. Remember that you cannot get illegal Pentium 4s unlike Windows.<g> - Intel's own data shows more shipments in other channels and not just the big PC makers. This has confused so many analysts for the past 2 quarters. Some said it was channel stuffing (ML's Osha) but have now backed off on that theory in a big way. - Pentium 4 never took off in the summer; there was the wait for XP launch. Now they are in the process of phasing out Pentium 3s much more quickly than people had expected. -Intel spent spent and spent this year on equipment and made it harder for their competition (AMD) to make the same committments..because the price cuts were hurting AMD much more. I think it was brilliant planning on Intel's part. Why would a company spend so much while so many analysts thought it was not a good idea? Intel knows much more than the analysts! - They will get to near monopoly status again and are on their way right now. -Gateway and IBM have abandoned AMD chips for their PCs THIS YEAR. They are aware of the fact there is just a preference for Intel CPUs amongst their customers. We have not seen the effects of this yet. -Many are making note of Intel's PE going forward. It is really all about profit margins. If they start cutting prices somewhat less than in the past, the EPS is going to soar very quickly. That is what I am expecting for this quarter. (50% to 100% higher EPS than current guidance!) -The US boxmakers are not the true indicators for the success of Intel's business. Any growth in smaller PC companies in new markets will be reflected on Intel's books but maybe not on Microsoft because of the issue of software piracy. Once more of this potential is realized (maybe by mid-quarter update), I would unload this stock. I have a short term target of close to 35 to unload aggressive short term positions and keep only a core long holding. BTW--The PC industry will boost so many semis, imho. A strong Christmas selling season for electronics would also help the industry. Of course, once the exhuberance reaches certain levels, it would be time to bail out...I think we have a way to go before we get there...sometime after the the Soxx breaks out. I am not looking for a major long term recovery in the industry; more interested in seeing the market interpretting it as such. .