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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keithcray who wrote (33443)	11/25/2001 2:15:24 AM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

nice to see the flatscreen I bought 6 mos ago , selling for 45% less than what i payed for it ... chit !.... I REALLY hate that , lol! (time for bunny to get an extra one now , even scotch girls can afford them , hehe) PXLW trying to run up again, we know what GNSS has done , if there was ever an app who's time has come it's been the flat screen . stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyimy[pc5!c20!c30!c50!c100!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Lh5,5!La12,26,9!Lg!Li13,5] but the valuations are still pretty insane , and upgrades are still coming in from Cowen seeing increased shipments 40% Qtr to Qtr....6+mil from 4.9mil or so, but noted both GNSS and PXLW had guided for flat sequential results. Oct 16th : Pixelworks (PXLW) 14.13 +0.40: Posts Q3 net of $0.09 a share, $0.01 better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.06. Rev rose 58% to $24.1 mln (mean $25.3 mln). Company lowers Q4 rev guidance to approx $24 mln (mean $28.1 mln); see press release. PXLW sportin' a PE around 60 and market cap of $650mil and GNSS PE of about 350 and Cap of $1Bil <G> GNSS stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyimy[pc5!c20!c30!c50!c100!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Lh5,5!La12,26,9!Lg!Li13,5] GNSS i believe has a patent infringement suit ongoing with SIMG which they vigorously denied any negative outcome in settlements, but SIMG remaining "hopeful" that it will receive a preliminary injunction in mid- to early-2002. There were rumors/report of insider selling in october. All in all, GNSS still highly overvalued here at these levels BWDIK. ;-)

To: keithcray who wrote (33443)	11/25/2001 4:35:46 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 208838

A wise approach, Keith. Btw, From March 2000 high to May 2000 low, I saw a drop of 40.8%. From there till its next peak in July 2000, was also about a 40.8% increase. I know I can't play the NASDy with mathematical precision but for some odd reason, certain percentages do re-occur. We bottomed in September at 1387. A 40% increase from there is 1942. A 41% increase is 1956. And a 40.8% increase is 1953. In past runs, using the 40.8% formula has been correct within 4 to 6 points, so 1947 to 1959 has been my target for that index. We hit 1934.7 last week, so I think there's some upside left in this run, but we are clearly in/near a turning point. I kinda think we're in a treading water phase, looking for that OBL capture/death for the final spike up, followed by a swift fall. And I'm certain we are within 2 weeks of that peak. The troublesome question to me is whether we experience a 40.8% decline, which would bring us to 1140 range - a lower low- in the first week of February. I can't rule it out, yet I feel in my bones from other observable longterm patterns, that 1625 is more likely to be the next low, and it will likely be a monthlong procession to that... so we may be within a 325 pt trading range for the next 6 weeks. In that case, trying to gauge the index direction is largely meaningless for awhile. Which means it's pick & axe time for awhile as a daytrader. Either ride an established momo or hunt for gems. Expect tax loss selling on the weak and insider buying on the strong. However, if we hit a peak near 1950 within 3 days, I'd say it's pretty safe shorting most the next 2 weeks. Just an offbeat analysis... and certainly, maintaining a detached view instead of any bias is the shrewdest approach of all.

To: keithcray who wrote (33443)	11/25/2001 1:33:38 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

it was unimaginable to most of us on Sept 21st that the Nasdaq would rally almost 600 points over a 5 week period in the midst of a colossal national crisis and an exceptionally dismal earnings season. In that context, I wouldn't venture a guess as to where we're going to be in two weeks from now, and even though a revisit of the earlier lows doesn't seem plausible at this point, I'm keeping an open mind. This market might have another surprise in store for us. Keith, That is probably the most honest and accurate assessment of the past few weeks that I have read. I've watched the best TA fail miserably in calling market direction. Nothing works every time and those who have dogmatically stuck to their guns have had their wallet made thinner. Playing caboose has been the only successful way to have played this market since the Sept 21 lows. Fred