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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (7822)	11/25/2001 9:29:21 AM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

In an interview with Barron's, Steve Milunovich of Merrill Lynch said that Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile) should be the prime beneficiary of a surge in interest in voice-over Internet Protocol. Why? Cisco, formidable in its size, needs to find new markets to enter, and voice over IP could be the ticket for them. In the same interview, Milunovich touted Internet Security Systems (ISSX: news, chart, profile) and Check Point Software (CHKP: news, chart, profile) among the computer security stocks, and storage company EMC (EMC: news, chart, profile) for its data-mirroring software. In addition, he sees Cisco, Extreme Networks (EXTR: news, chart, profile) and Riverstone (RSTN: news, chart, profile) capitalizing on the growing importance of Ethernet and take business from Nortel (NT: news, chart, profile), Lucent (LU: news, chart, profile) and Alcatel (ALA: news, chart, profile). For defensive plays, Milunovich touted computer services firms like Electronic Data Systems (EDS: news, chart, profile), First Data (FDC: news, chart, profile) and Affiliated Computer Services (ACS: news, chart, profile). And while he called most semiconductor stocks "too expensive," Milunovich said he liked Maxim (MXIM: news, chart, profile) and Analog Devices (ADI: news, chart, profile), both analog companies.

To: orkrious who wrote (7822)	11/25/2001 10:01:04 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Ork, don't look for rationality, you must look for liquidity, when large pension funds (they have more than $3 Trillions under management) change their allocations, the money flows first into the leaders in their segments. Eventually, valuation will play a role, but that is a long term process, that may take few bull/bears cycles over the next few years. I would not be surprised to see INTC bouncing against $50/share late next year. Will it be"worth" that much? Yes, if that is what the market says it is worth (g). What trailing PE will it be? Between 60 to 80. Yet, the $32 to $32.5 area is a triple top (April, June and August ), thus a real tough test here, a breakout above $32.5 will have all technicians running over each other to jump on board, on the other hand, if it does not breakout in the next few days, I think the following decline will be sharp and furious. Interesting times... Zeev