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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7839)	11/25/2001 1:10:22 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Very simply. Prior to Intel's new guidance for December, the expectations were for $0.16 cents for the December quarter..which allowed for a seasonal improvement. Upon, the earnings release, the CFO stated that all data points indicate a seasonally strong period. So why did he guide flat revenues? He was worried about consumer confidence and NOT what he was seeing in the industry. I believe he still guided for a 1% increase in margins for this quarter. My method for EPS projection is crude...because it is relative to analyst expectations. A bit over 400million in Operating Income...I think it was around 235 million last quarter...NOT net income..just operating. 9cents X 2.61billion shares. I have read positive commentary on the ramp of the P4 and means better margins and that leads me to than "expected" earnings. I am expecting PC demand to be better than what the experts are forecasting. All I am saying that they will show up above the top of revenue range not because of seasonality alone; the XP launch will be the key as it requires newer hardware. In Japan, XP just launched on November 16 and they are known to hold off purchases before a major Windows release. Memory prices have spiked recently and many thought it was temporary. Anyone notice that spot DDR still keeps going higher every week! There were rumors of shortages of the top P4 as well..where there is smoke, there is fire. So you have seasonality, XP, and a stronger competitive position (plans of IBM and Gateway are very significant,imho). On December 6, we should have our answer. Based upon the strength of Intel relative to other semis recently, I believe many traders feel the same way as I do. There is no other way to explain its high close on Friday when so many others in the industry have pulled in the last few days. It is being bought up even with so many influential analysts being negative on the PC industry. Of course, I might want to dump it just prior to the actual news if I feel traders that have bid it up are thinking the same way I am. BTW--I cannot see this company earning anything less than 14 cents on an operating basis for this quarter but we have to wait for the proof in January. They may still be a bit conservative in the mid quarter guidance to create the earnings suprise.