Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (24714)	11/25/2001 4:21:03 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 52237

Ineresting article about bear market rallies. I have been suspecting this rally is just that: a bear market rally. Given that we have been in a longer term bear market, I think we need to evaluate in this context what we see in the market. No what we hope to see. And until we have seen strong evidence to the contrary, this context is still in effect. I have not seen convincing evidence of a longer term bottom...yet. All I see so far is a termination of that last leg of the sell off that may end up in a trading range. So this is not a market for investors. But traders are profiting from this intermediate term bottom. Subsequent price action may validate a longer term bottom. Until that happens, IMO the long term investor needs to sit this one out. Once there is evidence of a context change that can be used to interpret future price action, which would also reinterpret past price action, then we would be able to see this as a "different" market and make out decisions accordingly. On a related note, talking to others I have seen investors begin to place money into the market. This is IMO another sign that we have not seen the end to this bear market. Just some thoughts. :-) Bob Graham

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (24714)	11/25/2001 4:42:48 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Bear Mkt Rallies: zealllc.com Dennis: Nice analysis... A comparison of the 1998 Nasdaq low of 1357 and the 2001 low of 1387 shows the rising lows... stockcharts.com[m,a]maclyymy[pc13!d20,2!c50!c100][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Lc20!Lp14,3,3!Ll14] We have a massive long term head and shoulders formation with a big battle coming in the 2000 to 2100 area... A close above 2200 puts it above the 50 period MA... That would be very bullish... The daily charts also confirm this area of overhead resistance... stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyymy[pc13!d20,2!c50!c100][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Lc20!Lp14,3,3!Ll14] In a Bull market you break through resistance... In a Bear market you are repelled by resistance... With interest rates at multi year lows and oil prices much lower, we could see the market look ahead to better times... That happens when bad news is ignored... We've seen a lot of that lately... Also, P/E's tend to be higher during the economic trough in the recession... As earnings start to improve, the P/E's will slim down a bit... So, I'm closely watching Nasdaq 2000 to 2100 for my guidance... Jim

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (24714)	11/25/2001 5:58:24 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Thanks for the great article which is definitely a keeper! I stuck it on our site for permanent storage. If I can ever get my power glitches to stop, I will update my charts 2 days late. I do have a bullish alternate target for the top of this move that is a bit higher but we are fast approaching the decision area as I show most stocks and indexes at the middle tines of the forks which is where the most uncertainty usually lies. Who knows if we will break through, meddle around here or just drop. As I said, for the mean time, I just have my stuff in fairly safe high yield stocks and will go to sleep until something good shows up on my radar. Looks like the Afganistan thing is going to be over pretty quick. Are we that good or was the Russian war machine not as good as we spun it to be all those 50 years? Never mind, I don't want to get another big discussion going? -gggggg- Good Luck, Lee