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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (33471)	11/25/2001 9:13:21 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

But then again... more bearish news... November 25, 2001 The World's Economies Slide Together Into Recession By JOSEPH KAHN WASHINGTON, Nov. 22 — With American economic malaise spreading as seamlessly as the technology- driven surge that preceded it, many economists now agree that the world is suffering its first recession in two decades and that recovery may come more slowly than once expected. The common slump may be revealing a dark side to the increasing economic integration of the last decade. The gyrations in cross-border trade and investment — even in business and consumer confidence — show that nations are responding in like fashion in times of trouble, just as they responded in the same way to the boom years of the late 1990's. By almost all estimates, the world has entered a recession, meaning that growth this year will fall below the 2.5 percent annual rate that the International Monetary Fund defines as the breaking point between economic progress and slippage. While the vast majority of economic activity still takes place within national borders, the world has become a more cohesive place in recent years. European reinsurance companies, which provide insurance to insurers, suffered heavily from the Sept. 11 attacks in New York, for example. The German conglomerate DaimlerChrysler is at least as sensitive to swings in auto sales in the American market as those at home. Taiwanese semiconductor makers shed jobs the moment computer sales decline in the United States. more... nytimes.com ____________ <snip>It's almost official: the economy is in recession, ending the longest uninterrupted expansion in American history. The official dating of the recession, the 10th since World War II, is expected to come as early as Monday from the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass., long considered the arbiter of economic contractions and expansions. The six members of the recession- dating committee discussed the issue in a conference call yesterday. The economists on the committee agreed not to talk about the decision, but an announcement is scheduled for Monday and a few now say that they think the economy is in a recession. They had indicated earlier that the most likely starting date for the recession is March. "My personal opinion is that a recession has begun," Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, said after the conference call. But he declined to say when he thought the recession had started or what the committee had decided. But even before yesterday's discussion, some new economic data, including a surge in October retail sales and a decline in initial jobless claims, had led a number of forecasters to predict recently that the recession would be relatively mild and less severe than they thought earlier. This shift in attitude has helped push interest rates higher, as many investors are now behaving as if the Federal Reserve will soon stop cutting short-term interest rates so aggressively. At the same time, stocks have rallied in anticipation of a recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average is up nearly 21 percent since its post-attack low on Sept. 21, while the Nasdaq composite index has jumped 33.7 percent since its low. <snip> dailynews.yahoo.com