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To: marginmike who wrote (22317)11/26/2001 12:43:40 AM
From: Paul Shread  Respond to of 209892
 
Erman (Ermanometry.com) had September 21-24 as a significant turn - but sees eventual new lows into September 2002.

From note of 09/02 - Possible Scenarios)
"(Approaching the Sept. Ezone) March 22 Lows Already Penetrated: We would again look for a double bottom. However, we expect that a rally in this instance would be weaker in percentage price move and duration than a rally in the scenario immediately above. The odds are that a new low (from all-time highs) in September would not hold as long as the March lows held. The door would again be open for a decline until September of 2002."

(From note of 09/03)
"Whether or not the March lows hold is the single most important element in determining the market's future course."

(From note of 09/17)
"The S&P 500 penetrated the March lows, prior to 09/11. This is a sea change for the market and it indicates the decline will most likely continue at least one more year...... its (March 22) penetration is ominous. We do not see any major support for the S&P until it reaches at least the 1000 level....if this level is reached prior to the Ezone, major support will then be much lower than 1000."