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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (3149)	11/26/2001 9:00:40 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

Most of our employees do not participate in the markets with the exception of their 401s; which they have seen dwindling. Perhaps if their 401s begin to uptick, coupled with cheaper oil(though how long can non OPEC hold out?), tax cuts, and continual incentives by retailers to get the consumers business will brighten things up to the point where you mention: "Last time we had a recession...we were coming out of it when they confirmed it." That is why I posed the thought here a month or so ago if anyone thought we could swing back and forth for a bit from negative to positive ect GDP. I believe there lies a possibility that the holiday shopping might just be an abnormality in the numbers(including the employment #s). Come late Jan and Feb when theose CC bills are due, and money gets tight, we might see the consumer tighten up once again. *However, as proof of my underestimation of the consumer, a couple threads past I mentioned the sdame thing that come Jan Feb(of last year). The consumer is going to be barely able to pay off the interest on their CC. So far the consumer had proven resiliant to all the corp decreases in capex and lower earnings. Who knows. P.S> FWIW and all subject to change on the turn of a dime, I'm about 5% long, 10% short, and about 8% long that yellow shit that appears to be headed to a 20+ year low.