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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (7965)	11/26/2001 9:17:28 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

That news from Taiwan Semi is just too important to be ignored, imho. That is just too big a jump in earnings. Reminds me of when Gateway issued a warning in the fall of 2000. There were many more to come after that one. I wonder if we see a similiar result but in the opposite direction (earnings surprises) this time around. That is how I am playing it. The other indicators like Short Interest still going up...NYSE hit a high in November; waiting for Nasdaq numbers this week.

To: puborectalis who wrote (7965)	11/26/2001 9:17:28 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

deleted

To: puborectalis who wrote (7965)	11/26/2001 9:28:14 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Something here does not "jive", they now forecast T$3.46 B more sales and that is supposed to increase profits by T$3.31?, that means that the cost of these additional T$3.46 is only T$.15 or under 5%, marginal COGS of 5%? Either their earlier forecast loaded up a bunch of costs, or we'll find out that something is "fishy" here. The cost of wafers plus packaging (without processing costs) range to between 10% to 15% of selling price in most typical semi operation, in waferfabs, these percentages are supposed to be even higher (design and verification costs are borne by the buyer). Zeev In edit, did however buy on the open some ZRAN at $32.50, got to have some expoure if I am wrong here.