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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4408)11/26/2001 11:13:13 AM
From: Frank Pembleton  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 36161
 
Slider -- some people say the markets are predictive, but from my own experiences it's more or less a lagging indicator.

and that we may have up to a decade of significant underperformance in the US Stock Market.

-- It seems to me, in regards to the patch, that oil damned near has to hit $30 per/Bbbl before the crowd starts accumulating O&G stocks and when they start you can't get them to stop. Could the same play apply to every sector? Could a person also say that a predictive upward move -- equals a bear market rally?

The fixation on DOW 10,000 as an economic health indicator could very well support your theory of denial. Hey! If it's at 10,000 everything ok, right? ... The general population might think it's ok ... but for the next 10 years?

Profitless prosperity for the S&P500 and a cold or non-existent IPO market is IMO -- is the best case scenario.

Regards
Frank P.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4408)11/26/2001 11:26:09 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Respond to of 36161
 
re: coming Bin Laden caputure/death rally

...anyone else sitting patiently for the coming Rally on both the eventual complete control of Afghanistan/Taliban capitulation and/or Bin Laden's death, or caputre ?

Still great shorting opps all over this market; but if/when we have one more leg to this move off of a Bin Laden/Afghan relief rally - it's a major short play... "MAJOR".



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4408)11/26/2001 2:11:22 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 36161
 
Slider:

I fully agree that we will retrace at least 50% of the recent rally before long. But there is a world of difference between the Dow dropping back to 9000 or so as I expect and your projection of a plunge to 6000-7000.

I still think we have seen the trough for the next 9 months or so. The lows probably will not be tested again until next fall barring some unknown catastrophic event.