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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (2942)	11/26/2001 1:28:50 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4690

Tough to know what's really going on and dependence on management is sort of universal [Great interview on this: thestreet.com], but I definitely find insurance more of a 'black box' than the rest too. I think buying when the industry is out of favor and selling when it's loved works but I pulled away from even BRK in this recent 911 incident. There's risk there that can't be quantified. Based on his recent letter, I'm not sure what the Bull case is based on. I'm waiting for those that bailed on BRK 2 years ago to repeat.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (2942)	11/26/2001 8:45:28 PM
From: Shane M	Respond to of 4690

Just as a general statement, it seems most personal lines insurers are focusing on profitability right now and consequently are more interesting investments to me than in the past. Growth at almost any cost went out of fashion about 2 years ago. It's fragile, however, as any of the major players can decide to go for marketshare again and start the price wars once more. In particular, profitability in property lines is of foremost focus. The industry has consistently lost money on property lines over the years, and only now is concluding that profitability in auto can no longer subsidize property losses. I think we're going to see many multi-line insurers begin only offering the money losing property business to customers that maintain an auto line of insurance - at least until rates become adequate. This might significantly alter the competitive landscape. Shane