Slider, A heck of a lot safer bet would be to work any angle of natural gas production on a long-term basis- whether owning E&P companies or service companies that cater to the NG sector, or gas-to-power "value adders" a little farther on up the line....
From the EIA recently: I only see "good, good, and good" for NG sector companies on the horizon.....
Energy use in 2002 will be higher than thought
Washington (Bloomberg) -- U.S. energy use by 2020 will be greater than the government predicted last year because companies will be using more computers and office equipment and Americans will be traveling more, the Energy Department said.
In 2020, energy demand is expected to be 32 percent above 2000 levels, 4 percentage points higher than estimated last year, the department said in its annual long-term energy outlook.
Consumption of gasoline and other motor fuels will be higher than previously forecast because more people will travel and they will be doing so less efficiently. The government lowered its estimate of how far popular sport-utility vehicles and other light trucks will be able to travel per gallon of gasoline by 2020.
The nation's economic slowdown and the decline in energy prices following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington lowered energy demand for the near term, said Mary Hutzler, acting administrator for the department's Energy Information Administration. "Long-term, there were no changes," she said.
The forecast expects the U.S. economy to recover by mid-2002 and is based on an estimated economic growth rate of 3 percent a year, similar to the 2.9 percent rate used last year.
Commercial energy demand is expected to rise 1.7 percent a year through 2020, instead of the 1.2 percent predicted last year, based on expectations for increased construction of office buildings. "The buildings will need heating and cooling and use more computers and office equipment," Hutzler said.
Energy demand from the transportation sector will grow 1.9 percent a year, compared to 1.8 percent projected a year ago, Hutzler said. The government expects more people to travel by car and by air, though it did not take into consideration changes in consumer behavior because of travel fears resulting from the Sept. 11 attacks.
"We'll have to take a look at that in the future," she said.
Electricity demand will grow about 1.8 percent annually through 2020, about the same rate projected last year, the government said. However, fewer nuclear power plants will close in the U.S. over the next 18 years than the government previously predicted.
More of the 103 U.S. nuclear plants will stay open because it will be cheaper to meet higher electricity demand with power from those plants than to build new plants to run on natural gas, which is expected to cost more than predicted last year, Hutzler said.
Nuclear power capacity in 2020 will be 10 percent lower than 2000 levels instead of the 27 percent reduction the government predicted last year. No new nuclear power plants are projected and existing plants will provide 13 percent of the nation's electricity in 2020, down from 20 percent now, the report said.
The report predicts natural gas, oil and electricity prices will be lower than 2000 levels, though higher by 2020 than previously forecast.
Natural gas prices, which rose to records late last year when supplies were tight, are expected to "decline sharply" next year, the report said. It projects gas to average $3.26 per thousand cubic feet in 2020, above last year's projection of $3.20, using 2000 dollars. Both are below the $3.60 price of 2000.
The government revised its numbers based on a "less optimistic assessment of natural gas reserves" in the U.S. and in Canada, Hutzler said. The cost of transporting gas will increase, contributing to the higher gas costs, Hutzler said.
Electricity prices by 2020 will decline about 6 percent from 2000, compared with a 12 percent decline projected last year. Forecasters revised their estimate because of the expected increase in the price of natural gas, which by 2020 is predicted to provide 32 percent of U.S. power, and a delay by some states in opening their power business to competition.
Higher demands for oil from the U.S. and developing nations such as those along the Pacific Rim will push prices to $24.68 a barrel by 2020 in 2000 dollars, more than the $22.92 the government predicted last year and lower than the $27.72 in 2000.
U.S. dependence on foreign oil will increase to 62 percent by 2020, compared with 53 percent in 2000, because of the nation's growing demand for oil, primarily for use in the transportation sector, the report said.
Last year's report predicted an increase to 64 percent. The 2 percentage point drop will be the result of increased production starting about 2010 from oil fields in Alaska, excluding the controversial Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, the report said
Web posted at: Nov 22 2001 1:09AM |
