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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (49140)	11/27/2001 9:51:51 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Software, Gorillas Good luck with QCOM Thanx, I could use all the luck I can get. Spent some time last night with a software analyst, millionaire investor, and he spontaneously offered how he had done extremely well with Siebel and ITWO in recent years, but dumped them in 2000. He offered that BEAS will get eaten alive by IBM and others, and that he continued to recommend Peregrine has a niche software play. He suggested their cash flow would be improving. He thinks nearterm growth in Siebel will be nil, and that its heyday is over. He thinks Siebel will be strong, but slow growing from here on out. I should mention that he likes a minimum of 20% growth in the companies he's looking to capitalize on, and that fortresses on Main Street do not entice him to spend new dollars. He has had Intel since '84. His philosophy is that as stocks rise, you should periodically take some off the table, say 5-10%, so as to have cash around for those unexpected times when fire sales strike, ie Sept. 11. He recommends that over being fully invested at all times. He's currently 7% cash, but in 3/2000 became 70% cash. He's been reinvesting since 12/2000, which he says has been a mistake, supporting the notion that timing the market is tough to do successfully. He also offered that while the Gorilla Game is a good way to identify good companies (he followed the GG listserve), that not using valuation was a mistake. He offered that as a software engineer and now analyst, that over his time in HIgh Tech, technology is extremely volatile and great companies get sliced by 50% all the time. His time frame for good companies is about 3-5 years, and thinks that a LTBH strategy similar to Buffett in High Technology is flawed because of the volatility. He stated that Buffett doesn't invest in Tech, not because he doesn't understand Tech, but because Buffett understands perfectly well that Tech is volatile and unpredictable, which is not what Buffett wants in his Portfolio. So, the takehome messages from him were: 1. The GG is helpful, but incomplete and Moore doesn't know anything about valuation. 2. Peregrine is "undervalued" now, and will have improving cash flow. 3. Always have some cash around for catastrophies. 4. LTBH in High Technology is a flawed strategy, for the most part. I thought it amazing that most of what he was saying had been discussed on this thread by various contributors. No, I don't know if he follows this Thread. Anybody know anything definitive about Peregrine? Apollo