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To: sun-tzu who wrote (22718)	11/28/2001 7:35:30 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

sun-tzu, so based on history you see this rally continuing until February-March? Do you have a wave scenario or a fib retracement number for this continuation?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (22718)	11/28/2001 9:57:08 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

thnx for your well-reasoned take, mike. A few comments. Re liquidity injections -- some time ago Alan Newman posted some data on the "efficiency of injections" as related to the ability to move the djia up. His indication at that time (a few months ago) was that larger and larger injections were needed to move the indices by the same amount -- is it possible that this trend is accelerating -- at some pt it will become ineffective -- do you expect that will happen in a gradual manner?? The '98 - '99 action was quite ferocious -- I remember because I made some large gains to give up most of them again later in the ensuing 'recovery.' In recent history, I can think of about 3 episodes that might be classed as such -- reliquification or possibly just two -- do you think these are sufficient to draw conclusions about the course of events this time 'round. Also -- a 10 day p/c ration of 0.3 must be a very rare phenomena -- how many times has that happened? If this is a bear market rally -- why should we ever expect to see such extremes again? Re Newman -- he has dollar trading volume (DTV) as an indication that we are in a mania -- an I agree these remain at mania levels, but would venture to guess that on his recent charts we have seen the peak. Not looking for reasons to remain bearish -- we all know the state of affairs on a fundamental basis -- just curious as to why so many think that there is going to be a special bell rung to tell us all that we are returning to trend within the bear market ...