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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kirby49 who wrote (4540)	11/28/2001 1:10:36 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

re: I have been expecting it to end and end badly since 99: Since most stocks have given back everything since the initial ramp off the 10/98 lows, being cautious since 1999 (early or late 1999?) has been the correct stance. You were early, but I don't think you were wrong. The endpoint in this game, will be when one of these points is reached: 1. the Moral Hazard, which has been steadily building for years as mistakes by governments/hedge funds/companys/etc./etc. get bailed out, results in the failure of an entity too big to be bailed out. Like the entire Japanese banking system. Or the U.S. dollar. Or the 10 largest hedge funds all at once. First, though, every possible manipulation and stop-gap measure must be exhausted. 2. the increase in the money supply, combined with too-easy credit, and too-low interest rates, leads to inflation. I mean inflation in consumer prices (not just the asset inflation we've been seeing for years); inflation which is bad enough that it can't be swept under the rug by government statisticians (who continuously "adjust" their measurement methods, in ways too complicated to follow or understand). Neither of those two endpoints has yet been reached. Recent polls say consumers expect inflation in the next 12 months to be about 0.5%, and LT in the 2-3% range. The PPT still has a few tricks to play, a few cards they've hidden up their sleeves. As I recall, it took 3 full years after the 1929 market top, for stocks to bottom, and there were several long, spectacular rallies in that time. My current thinking is that the current rally (barring another "exogenous shock"), goes into 2002, and the market doesn't find it's next intermediate bottom until late 2002 or 2003.