To: fingolfen who wrote (150149 ) 11/28/2001 4:07:09 PM From: GVTucker Read Replies (1) | Respond to fingolfen, RE: I've seen quoted comments, but I haven't seen his "report." Nor do I understand how he is collecting data and analyzing that data to generate the report. Without those facts, my skepticism remains. Do you have any more information? Our industry sources indicate that Intel's demand for both raw wafers and photoresist peaked in September and dropped off in October and November. [bold face theirs] Recall that raw wafer and photoresist demand can be a leading indicator of the company's output by roughly four to six weeks, because it typically takes an average of four to six weeks for the wafers to flow through the fabs and complete the manufacturing process. Thus, the decline in raw wafer and photoresist demand in October and November indicates weak shipments are likely in November and December. This is very different from average seasonal behavior, which is characterized by a 25% sequential decline in October, 7% sequential increase in November, and 13% increase in December.
