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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9089)	11/29/2001 8:29:44 AM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa, I think Dow and Naz have put in the top on this last rally and we'll see the Sept low next year.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9089)	11/30/2001 3:37:40 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99280

Bull Market Basebuilding: Basebuilding or testing of lows may be the general rule, but exceptional circumstances can override it. For example, in 98 there was an expectation that foreign currency crises would negatively impact us. That turned out to be incorrect, and so there were two lows 5-6 wks apart, but no extensive basebuilding. This time, the Sept 11th events, the week-long market closings and the anthrax scares combined to distort Market action and create artificially low stock prices that were not responding to the business/economic outlook. Therefore, I believe any basebuilding is more likely to occur at levels significantly above the Sept 21st lows. At any rate, I'm reasonably confident that my new & improved leading indicators will give me adequate notice when a major decline is about to begin. Currently, 1yr Nasdaq Bus Expecttns 2 1/2 to 5wk lead) is right at the top of its recent range, so nothing calamitous is about to happen just yet.