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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (4616)	11/29/2001 11:21:29 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 36161

Hi Isopatch, really just posting for informational purposes hence no commentary. One cannot afford to get too complacent with any one view, as in 3 sides to every story, our side their side and then the truth ;o) Actually the issue I would take with it is the 'productivity' angle used to mitigate the real inflation pressure. I think all the arguments by economists who use productivity as an offset to inflation are not looking at larger social and demographic issues implied for the developed world and in fact for the shrinking 'developing world'. Just China alone modernizing and 'crossing the fence' into the 'developed world' will have huge implications, beneficial at first but for how long ? There are more points to pick at but I got to work and have an ill kid @ home today. Thinking down the road here to my kids' times. regards Kastel

To: isopatch who wrote (4616)	11/29/2001 12:40:31 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

Iso; great post & re: Rahn's commentary - re: ["The Japanese have tried to spend their way out of the mess. The only result is that the Japanese now have a government debt several times ours on a per-capita basis and no growth. The Keynesian crowd has argued that the increase in debt should cause massive inflation and high interest rates. In fact, supply-side economists correctly predicted that tight monetary policy would lead to deflation despite massive increases in government spending and taxation.'] ...chalk one up for the supplysiders~ re: the "VELOCITY OF MONEY" ...an important concept to remember here going forward. Unemployment numbers popped up again thia a.m. ....and the Real Estate Bubble is the next one to deflate....bank on it & start pricing "puts" on Title Insurers & the likes of the "Mortgage Refi-Mania" Kings like Countrywide et al...these are chip shot shorts. Also; there is a HUGE wave of layoffs coming via the Big 3 US Auto Mfgr's... tic - toc' ...all o% financing did was to buy some time and to clear the inventory a bit... they just decimated Q1,2,3 2002 sales for next year; destroyed margins and the Finance & Insurance income for the likes of GMAC, Ford & Chrysler Credit....the rise in umployment goes to 7% imho by mid-2002. We don't know the ramifications of the DERIVATIVES collapse in Enron yet... God Forbid we have an Xmas timeframe domestic Terrorist act (which is "when" they will hit, if they STILL have the capability to do so - imho)), or that Argentina unravels; or Japan cracks...because then the stage is set for the Soros's of the world to make a run on the Gold Derivative Shorts and there will be too many battles being fought to keep the gold dike plugged...whodathunkit - re: the day we see a JPM et al collapse ? - wonder how much Silver ole' Warren Buffet is still sitting on (vbg) ? GOLD & SILVER - IT'S TIME HAS COME ~ how much ya' got ?