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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13393)	11/30/2001 5:21:12 PM
From: blankmind	Respond to of 78576

- Util companies are dirt cheap at the moment - & I don't mean Enron-types - instead, I mean regular utility companies that own plants & have a semi-protected turf - although they do buy & sell wattage so they do have ancillary overlap - but really they're like beaten down REITS of 3 or 4 yrs ago - Here's 3 utility companies trading w/ p/e's of under 10; & high book value - & btw - all have projected even higher earnings in 2002: - PPL CORP (NYSE:PPL) - $36 - RELIANT ENER (NYSE:REI) - $26 - WISCONSIN ENER (NYSE:WEC) - $22

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13393)	12/1/2001 4:06:54 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78576

Bob, I was tempted on cpn until I looked at 5 year chart. I am always reluctant to own company that has run up so greatly. Certainly not your typical utility. finance.yahoo.com

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13393)	12/13/2001 11:04:52 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78576

Despite my resolve not to get more deeply involved with CPN due to regulatory issues, I averaged down yesterday, buying in the high 10's and mid- 13's pulling average cost down to 16.92. Merrill says break-up net asset value is $40+ per share. Listened to several CC's and I beleive liquidity & 'next Enron' concerns are overblown...especialy the latter. Unlike ENE, CPN owns a bunch of assets and the only significant 'off balance sheet' obligations are traditional operating leases. They say Ca. has affirmed the validity of existing contracts, but there may be win win adjustments of terms that would be no worse than neutral and possibly improve near-term eps. Yesterday was a classic panic. FUNDAMENTALS THAT SUPPORT THE UTILITIES: * Current conditions in the northeastern U.S. notwithstanding, most places on planet earth still get cold and still get hot. Discomfort is not virtual. * Ultimately, someone pays for the product * The business is backed by real assets that are difficult to hide and tougher to move. * Those assets don't tend to be usurped by version 2.01 * Regulators are often adversaries, but ultimately they want to keep their jobs, too. * There may be too much fiber in the ground, but there's not too much 345KV transmission capacity in the air. Ditto for 36 inch pipe in the ground. * Try and build more of either near anyone.

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13393)	3/22/2002 4:19:17 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78576

CPN: Closed-out the balance of this today with ~18% gain overall. I earned every painful nickle of it, too, considering the 'adverse excursion' this has taken. So many things went wrong: Energy shortage - Where did it go? Once it's shown to be unlike Enron, clear sailing? Nope. California loves these guys cause they were so cooperative, so Ca. won't try to blow away the contracts...Like Hell they won't [I doubt Ca. prevails but negative news flows won't help] All utilities have debt...not such a bad thing...Yeah, right. High debt turns a business 'cold' into Pneumonia. Watched asset based valuations melt like snowballs on a Phoenix parking lost...largely due to debt leverage. Likewise earnings estimates: down, down down Analysts with high price targets like Lehman [$50] scurried down a rat hole when negative news flow began. Now these former fans consider it neutral, fully valued or market performs...all euphemisms for sell. This pop seems based on takeover speculation: Not a game I play. The only reason I got out of this with my hide in tact was buying a bunch near the lows and selling into this rise.