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To: GST who wrote (135269)	11/29/2001 5:16:55 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Yep. New and continuing claims are high. I think we agreed that job losses would continue for a couple months. But it's still a reach to get to your predictions of 7% unemployment by Christmas (shall we say year end instead?) and 2 million jobs lost this year. Nov unemployment and nonfarm payrolls come out next Friday. Consensus on unemployment is 5.6% (likely low). 2000 & YTD payroll numbers are below. Jobs lost so far are 600k on a SA basis and 598k NSA. Weak X-mas hiring by cautious retailers means the usual seasonal upswing likely won't offset the layoffs, so I'd expect both numbers to climb, just not to 2 million. 1 maybe. Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm (in thousands) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Avg 2000 130668 130843 131441 131683 131909 131969 131899 131837 132046 132145 132279 132367 2001 132428 132595 132654 132489 132530 132431 132449 132395 132182(p) 131767(p) p : preliminary 1 Month Net Change (in thousands) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Avg 2000 303 175 598 242 226 60 -70 -62 209 99 134 88 2001 61 167 59 -165 41 -99 18 -54 -213(p) -415(p) p : preliminary Not Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm (in thousands) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Avg 2000 128672 129364 130492 131544 132527 133163 131739 131637 132411 132978 133351 133234 131759 2001 130413 131102 131703 132377 133147 133618 132300 132207 132522(p) 132606(p) p : preliminary 1 Month Net Change (in thousands) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Avg 2000 -2621 692 1128 1052 983 636 -1424 -102 774 567 373 -117 2001 -2821 689 601 674 770 471 -1318 -93 315(p) 84(p) p : preliminary