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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (9355)	11/29/2001 5:52:33 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Siebel says Q3 low point for information software By Andrea Orr SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Nov 29 (Reuters) - Siebel Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:SEBL - news) Chief Executive Tom Siebel Thursday said he believes the information software industry hit its low point during the third quarter, although Siebel itself has not necessarily hit bottom yet. Still, he stressed business stabilized significantly following the sharp downturns seen during the second and third quarters. ``I believe we will look back on the third quarter as the low point for information software,'' Siebel said during a keynote address at the Credit Suisse First Boston Technology Conference here. ``Things appear to be solidifying.'' But later, when asked if that meant Siebel's results would improve in the fourth quarter, Siebel cautioned. ``I did not say it was the bottom for Siebel.'' Siebel, which reported third quarter earnings of seven cents per share, is projected to earn nine cents in the fourth quarter, according to a consensus of analysts estimates provided by Thomson Financial. Siebel declined to provide any updates to that guidance. In an address that focused mostly on the stabilizing business climate and on Siebel's clear domination of the customer relationship management or CRM software industry, Siebel did say his company was bound to lose market share over time. He said Siebel's share of the CRM market should shrink to about 50 percent -- eventually. ``What is the likelihood that we will maintain our current market share? Zero,'' he said. ``There is just no way.'' He outlined an eventual scenario in which Siebel will have about half the market with the number two player holding about 15 percent and the number three player with around 10 percent. Although that would mean significantly reduced market share from Siebel's current level, Siebel gave no time frame for his long term outlook. ``If we look at software markets in general, the leader will get 50 percent over time. The only exception to that is the operating system market,'' he said. During the presentation Siebel also expects about 90 percent of its CRM customers to upgrade to Siebel 7, its new Web-based CRM software product, over the next year. In comments about the timing of a rebound in the software industry, Siebel said it was not yet clear when business would begin to ramp. ``The market is looking pretty normal now,'' he said. ``It is normal at a much lower level than a year ago, but at least it is not this gut-wrenching dynamic downslide that we saw in the second and third quarters. But I don't think it is gaining much momentum yet.'' biz.yahoo.com