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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (9359)	11/29/2001 6:02:25 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 99280

Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: Not quite what people expected. This chip equipment giant held its mid-quarter conference call after the bell. The stock is trading at $38.50 in after hours trading. The stock traded strongly during the regular session as traders clearly were betting on NVLS talking about an upturn. It didn't happen and it does not sound like it's right around the corner either. Overall business conditions have not changed as there is still excess capacity at the fabs. There have been some reports of lower inventory, but still not to the extent required to trigger a rapid expansion of capacity by customers....As for raw numbers, mgmt essentially affirmed Q4 sales and EPS guidance, but now predicts a loss in Q1 vs Multex consensus of a $0.06 profit. A loss is a possibility for Q2 also. Q4 bookings and shipments look to fall short, but it's the outlook for the first half that has traders spooked....This will probably hurt the whole semi equipment sector tomorrow depending on the spin from the analysts tomorrow morning. We would not be surprised to see a downgrade or two on NVLS as 2/3 of the sell side analysts have Buy ratings. Just as we said with our Oct 15 Story Stock on NVLS, we see little reason to jump into the shares here with potential losses in Q1 and Q2. It's a great company with $2 bln in cash on the balance sheet, but the group has run aggressively off the mid-Sep lows. How many more buyers are out there near term? We'd rather wait for more concrete evidence of an upturn. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com

To: TREND1 who wrote (9359)	11/29/2001 6:26:15 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Thats silly.. and Zeev is not in the same 'camp' as you.. He simply states that he himself dosnt have the mindset to short so he simply avoids it.. but he dosnt make a ridiculous statement saying every short seller will loss it all in the end which is totally ridiculous.. I seem to remember the last time we went through this you just settled it by saying 'Paul lies about his trades' and it was at that point I stopped wasting my time.. but sometimes your arrogance just gets ahead of itself. Make no mistake- I think your call on the 'qs' was fantastic, and anyone who followed you made an incredible return and they still are.. In fact, if I had listened to you id have quite a chunk of profits right now instead of fighting it like I am.. but that dosnt excuse the other 'garbage' the comes out of your mouth regarding short selling and any short seller who says he/she is making a profit is a fibber.. That just boils my blood..