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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (136387)	11/29/2001 8:51:41 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Swenlin 11/30... <Today's rally was pegged to (1) President Bush's comment that the Taliban army has been virtually destroyed, and (2) hopeful comments coming out of the CSFB Tech Conference that the bottom is in for the economy. That the first story is fact there is no doubt, but the second is still an expression of hope, not of economic fact. Beside the news, we knew that the market was short-term oversold and due for a bounce, and overzealous short sellers most assuredly provided the fodder needed for the bull's cannon. Short-term indicators are back to neutral, all three primary IT indicators (PMO, ITBM, ITVM) have topped in oversold territory, there has been a short-term trend line violation, and today market indexes snapped back to the overhead resistance of the trend line. On top of this, the AAII sentiment poll recorded its second highest percentage of bulls in its history (69%). Surely we must be looking at a short-term top in the making, possibly an intermediate-term top. If the recent highs are taken out, I would have to conclude that the 10-Week Cycle is in (as of yesterday), and that the IT top won't be seen for at least a month. If the rising trend line drawn from the September low is violated, then we may have a chance at a decent correction. --Carl Swenlin> good guidelines to follow but the recent highs will be taken out. don't even consider shorts until Dec 31 and perhaps longer imo. (~)^(~)