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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: martin001 who wrote (25166)	11/29/2001 11:17:10 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Respond to of 52237

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." There is an implicit assumption here that the market will eventually become rational, after an unpredictably long spell of irrationality. I wonder if there is any basis for this assumption and, indeed, any basis for assuming rationality at any time. There is something along these lines in the probability literature. In essence, it says that "if you persist in gambling your finite pot of winkeldoodies against an infinitely rich adversary (the house), you will eventually meet ruin with probability 1." Given the win/lose probabilities, your expected time to ruin can be computed. [One-dimensional random walk]. We are all habitual gamblers. If you want to be kind, we are speculators. Same thing. TA and FA are merely therapy --- to make us feel better about how we gamble. Joseph :)