Russia Checkmated Its New Best Friend
November 28, 2001
The Los Angeles Times
COMMENTARY
By ERIC S. MARGOLIS, Eric S. Margolis is a foreign affairs columnist for
Canadian and Pakistani newspapers and author of "War at the Top of the
World--The Struggle for Afghanistan, Kashmir and Tibet" (Routledge, 2000)
Many Americans, grown cynical of government
pronouncements, have been asking whether the real
war goal of the United States in Afghanistan is to
gain access to Central Asia's oil and gas. The
answer: no and yes.
The U.S. attacked Afghanistan to exact revenge for
the Sept. 11 attacks. But it must have quickly
occurred to former oilmen George Bush and Dick
Cheney that retribution against the Taliban and
Osama bin Laden offered a golden opportunity to
expand American geopolitical influence into South
and Central Asia, scene of the world's latest gold rush--the Caspian Basin.
The world has ample oil today. But, according to CIA estimates, when China
and India reach South Korea's current level of per capita energy use--within 30
years--their combined oil demand will be 120-million barrels daily. Today, total
global consumption is 60million to 70million barrels daily. In short, the major
powers will be locked in fierce competition for scarce oil, with the Gulf and
Central Asia the focus of this rivalry.
Central Asia's oil and gas producers are landlocked. Their energy wealth must
be exported through long pipelines.
He who controls energy, controls the globe.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, wants Central Asian resources
to be transported across its territory. Iran, also an oil producer, wants the
energy pipelines to debouch at its ports, the shortest route. But America's
powerful Israel lobby has blocked Washington's efforts to deal with Iran.
Pakistan and the U.S. have long sought to build pipelines running due south
from Termez, Uzbekistan, to Kabul, Afghanistan, then down to Pakistan's
Arabian Sea ports, Karachi and Gwadar.
Oilmen call this route "the new Silk Road," after the fabled path used to export
China's riches.
This route, however, would require a stable, pro-Western Afghanistan.
Since 1989, Iran has strived to keep Afghanistan in disorder, thus preventing
Pakistan from building its long-sought Termez-Karachi pipeline.
When Pakistan ditched its ally, the Taliban, in September, and sided with the
U.S., Islamabad and Washington fully expected to implant a pro-American
regime in Kabul and open the way for the Pakistani-American pipeline.
But, while the Bush administration was busy tearing apart Afghanistan to find
Bin Laden, it failed to notice that the Russians were taking over half the
country.
The Russians achieved this victory through their proxy--the Northern Alliance.
Moscow, which has sustained the alliance since 1990, rearmed it after Sept. 11
with new tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, helicopters and trucks.
To the fury of Washington and Islamabad, in a coup de main the Russians
rushed the Northern Alliance into Kabul, in direct contravention of Bush's
dictates.
The alliance is now Afghanistan's dominant force and, heedless of multi-party
political talks in Germany going on this week, styles itself as the new "lawful"
government, a claim fully backed by Moscow.
The Russians have regained influence over Afghanistan, avenged their defeat by
the U.S. in the 1980s war and neatly checkmated the Bush administration,
which, for all its high-tech military power, understands little about Afghanistan.
The U.S. ouster of the Taliban regime also means Pakistan has lost its former
influence over Afghanistan and is now cut off from Central Asia's resources. So
long as the alliance holds power, the U.S. is equally denied access to the
much-coveted Caspian Basin. Russia has regained control of the best potential
pipeline routes. The new Silk Road is destined to become a Russian energy
superhighway.
By charging like an enraged bull into the South Asian china shop, the U.S.
handed a stunning geopolitical victory to the Russians and severely damaged its
own great power ambitions. Moscow is now free to continue plans to dominate
South and Central Asia in concert with its strategic allies, India and Iran.
The Bush administration does not appear to understand its enormous blunder
and keeps insisting that "the Russians are now our friends."
The president should understand that where geopolitics and oil are concerned,
there are no friends, only competitors and enemies.
latimes.com. |
