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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (9505)	11/30/2001 9:34:45 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Retiring To The Sidelines -- Market Comments FWIW, these are my thoughts for the day and month. The easy money since 9/11 has been made. It is STILL unclear as to whether this is a rally in a bear market with one more downturn on the horizon or whether this is a "baby" (early) bull market. However, every time I contemplate a trade, either short or long, I am fearful and have a queasy feeling. What this is telling me is that: (1) the market is now at a stage where it is moving irrationally, responding to external events that have nothing to do with the market and not responding to events that should move the market; (2) I should not be in this current market and should focus on preserving capital. The whipsaw action and volatility makes trading for most of us difficult and unprofitable, little more than guesswork. My own "gut" feeling is that the market has come too far too fast, with little upside and potential for considerable downside. I do NOT know if downside will be a 10-20% correction in an early bull market or a retest or partial retest (down to 1600-1650) in an ongoing bear market. I DO know that the best play is to step aside. Many indicators by knowledgeable technical analysts show that the NASDAQ is at ST risk for a decline. Current market is in limbo -- too late to go long, too strong and unpredictable to go short. I STRONGLY suggest that everyone read Teresa Lo's comment in LTK007's post # 9392. This is where the real money will be made. If the market crashes, that will be the time to be aggressive and load up. If the market races away, despite questionable fundamentals and overly optimistic expectations for early 2002 economic recovery, there will be a good shorting opportunity next year. Caution and patience, not wild trading, is what is needed in current environment. I am prepared to sit this out for 1 month, 3 months, or 6 months until one of those two opportunities present itself. For those of you who continue to trade aggressively, be careful; make sure you have enough capital to live (and invest) another day. DlphcOracl