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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (9618)	11/30/2001 4:37:58 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Psysocmarper: Re: "Lower interest rates, high rates of monetary growth and depleted inventories virtually always serve as the catalysts for a new bull market and new economic expansion." This is not your typical domestic recession. You are talking about a worldwide recession, the first one in some 25 years. And you are talking about a post bubble economy. I do not accept any economic theory unless it has a foundation in what has happened in past post bubble economies. Lack of a post bubble analysis by economists is inept. There is no catalyst in the valuation of equities as it is at the very high end of historical norms currently and there is no end in sight ot the markdown in earnings. All this puts constant pressure on equities no matter what the interest rate level. Re: "Large bankruptcies and rising unemployment always occur late in the recession and early in the recovery. I prefer to plan based on the most likely outcome, rather than assume that this will be one of the rare exceptions." This is a rare exception. See above.