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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	11/30/2001 10:37:25 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 52237

Paul, actually I use the 20-day and 200-day EMA, which you may notice is an even better indicator in this year. It hit the Jan high on the nose, it was maybe a week early on the May high, and it appears it may be a week or two early this time. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20011130][pc200!c20][vc60] It doesn't work quite as well on the VXN, however: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20011130][pc200!c20][vc60] I don't pay as much attention to the VXN anyway, as the VIX is a more reliable indicator with better history. It is possibly you could glean a good date by using a combination of the EMA and SMA on the VIX. I can't take credit for this, as Les Horowitz once posted that he thought the crossing of the moving average lines was more significant than the actual values. I can't remember if he pointed to the 200 & 20 day or if I just stumbled on it (I think he was using the 13EMA and something else). Anyway, like most things I've looked at recently, this doesn't seem to be working in calling this top. I think the top has been taken out of our hands the past couple of weeks, but we'll get it back in our court soon enough <G>.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	11/30/2001 11:24:33 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

One can also use moving average variance for the 10- and 50-day exponential moving averages. It got close to the 15 pct warning level. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20011130][pb21!b200][vc60][iLe10,50,1] if we have a dribbler of a pullback as in last summer, we could have the VIX fall with the decline so long as the OEX tracks the 21-day average closely. seasonality probably doesn't favor that being repeated now. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20011130][pb21!b200][vc60][iLe10,50,1]

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	12/1/2001 7:03:47 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Too many defaults at once and the Fed will not be able to plug the holes. Bank run in Argentina doesnt sound too healthy. biz.yahoo.com The reality that some major US and Japanese corporations are failing might start to sink in next week. M.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	12/1/2001 9:15:19 AM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 52237

OT..Cox@Home service is still up.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	12/1/2001 12:16:59 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 52237

econ calendar for next wk briefing.com some detailed stuff if you click on the links for each economic report.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25281)	12/1/2001 12:40:44 PM
From: Debra Orlow	Respond to of 52237

OT Had @Home thru AT&T connection yesterday. I was automatically connected pronto with AT&T broadband this morning. Outside of having to reset my cable modem, all went well. I guess that I am one of the lucky ones, hooked up in 1 day as opposed to 14 as their press release suggests in some cases. I am reading of some horror stories where the plug just got pulled with no notice or auto switch. Debra