Hi Carranza2, The ME is indeed on edge, and may be engulfed. This is a more manageable affair when the global economy is strong and financial system solid. The interconnected systems and sub-systems are obviously not strong now, and so we sit on edge with ME, allowing events, like tidal waves, to push us here and there. I believe it is now best to not fight the waves, and instead, grab the pre-positioned scuba gear and dive down below the waves, hide, wait, while keeping an eye on the rest of the pre-positioned scuba tanks on the sandy bottom.
I mentioned ME in my posts, and repeatedly pointed to the same over the course of 2001 …
Message 15421566
… but I know what you mean … I did not emphasize the issue that has now become more real.
ME issue is simultaneously one of the important triggers and fuel that could be part of the Collapse script, and I reiterate (learned to like that word from the analysts reports) that …
Message 15758771
“The system is weak, many events can go wrong, resulting possibly in market shaking outcomes we want no part of, and once help is on the scene, the cure may do us additional long term harm.
Bottom slapping guesses, Nasdaq hits an ultimate low of 1,400, and maybe 900, and S&P and DJIA making generally the same unhappy journey, maybe 0.7-0.9k and 5-6k respectively, unless of course lower still, or maybe not at all.”
Message 15591228
“On "why not" fight the FED … Japanese did everything their collection of smart folks, systems and institutions allowed them to do.
I believe the FED's "printing of money" or making available of money is what got us here in the first place, sometimes unavoidable (LTCM etc) perhaps.
The business cycle is also unavoidable, especially in the context of bubble blowup. Many think we in the 1990s have discovered what others failed to for all of recorded history. I believe the beliefs are wrong.
We live within the confines of a set of rapidly evolving, complicated and interlinked patchwork of systems and sub-systems, all designed for dedicated purposes, and sometimes at contradictory purposes (i.e. encouragement of savings vs encouragement of spending), all put in place at different times, and set with sometimes incompatible tolerances.
The patchwork of systems is now weak. The system's forward health is dependent on fewer and fewer exogenous inputs and is more subject to external shocks that have built up over this extraordinary period. The equity and debt markets have demonstrated that times have changed, imbalances are causing malfunctions. All is not well.
Many feel obliged to placing or maintain bets before the roulette wheel stops spinning, which may be wise, depending on the bet. I believe the bets are unwise for most.
…
Less the faith in Greenspan, the economy is ill.”
<<What way to start off the New Year>>
We are solidly in the party and holiday season here in Hong Kong. Last night was my wife’s Women in Media annual party held at The Alibi, a trendy bar and restaurant in the SOHO area 2 minutes walk from my office. Name-brand companies donated all of the door prizes and companies wishing to sell to the ladies sponsor the food and drinks, enabling their agents to mingle with the members at the start of the casual affair. I invited some of my deserving male buddies, and one recent transferee to Hong Kong, ogling, asked me why I did not encourage him to come to Hong Kong 15 years ago. Well, because 15 years ago I did not have as good access to girls’ parties as I do now. There were enough Women in Publishing types present and I tested the concept of writing a story for the real world. I am encouraged, told to go straight for screenplay, but I realize I am short of time, unless the Collapse script plays out its scariest scenes:0)
<<Jay Chen Report>>
When I can no longer convince myself based on logic, rationality, caution, calculation, I will transform to steam out of nostril bull, when I am at my best …
Message 12853201
“Frenzy is good.
I am picturing the raised swaying arms of the crowds in Japan gently pass us over head one at a time to Nirvana Ranch on Maui, as the Latino beat pulsate throughout the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with tears in their eyes and NTT Docomo phones around their necks. Piles and piles of Postal Savings records underfoot to cushion the ground in case we fall.
I am working day and night (4am-10pm) on a gizzilion items and am overwhelmed. Went jogging today. Ran very fast for very long, on adrenalin. While readying to go into town for reflexology, I noticed that I am more handsome than ever. The reflexology was good, got done over until my eyeballs popped out.
I am drunk on oxygen, and I am delirious from aerobasizing in place while sitting at my desk. When I shake and gyrate around in my chair energetically enough, I get dizzy and feel the same as I would had I drank one beer too many.
Please do not stop the music. I promise to be a good boy this year, all year.”
Chugs, Jay |
