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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (12424)	12/2/2001 4:31:37 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

tekboy, essentially Mr. Shikaki is saying that right now Arafat is running a unity government with the Islamicists, and next year the Islamicists will be on top. So explain to me why, rationally speaking, why this means the Israelis should give Arafat anything at all? 'With the consent of the Islamicists' means in accord with their aims -- which are not peace or prosperity but the destruction of Israel, as they freely tell anyone who asks.

To: tekboy who wrote (12424)	12/2/2001 5:38:59 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Even he recognizes, however, that the ways out of the dilemma--a major negotiated settlement, or dramatic reform of the PA, or both--are highly unlikely. I hope no one out here, and in particular a well-studied individual like yourself, is surprised by this. Many of us have recognized that Arafat was no longer in control of the tigers upon who back he was riding. This was pretty obvious when he released all of the extremists that Israel has insisted the PA arrest under the Oslo and Wye accords. I mean.. let's face some facts about these extremist groups. They are the world's worst nightmare since they don't fear death, but rather, welcome it. And they will kill any moderate who oppose their agenda, dealing with them as enemies of "allah's will". Thus, any reasonable voice is either eliminated, or intimidated. Thus, even were Arafat disposed to seek peace, he really can't begin to create the conditions for it until he has jailed and/or elimiated those who have no interest in peace. For me, the handwriting has been on the wall for years, and particularly this year with all of the extensive suicide bombings that have occurred. I've been surprised by the restraint the Israelis have shown. Every massive bombing we've witnessed would seem to be the straw that would break the camel's back, but they've held off from massive retaliation, either out of the need for greater preparation, or to give the US time to implement the Mitchell plan. One should note that there have been reports that Israel security has been hampered by the fact that many reservists are ungoing extensive uptraining with their military units, thus suggesting preparations for regional war. There have also been extensive recruiting efforts by Israel around the world to attracts international Jews to volunteer for service with the IDF, thus again creating the impression that this was not just "business as usual". Arafat has NO CREDENTIALS as a credible political leader. He has known nothing but terrorism and armed struggle, ruthlessly controlling the financial pursestrings and leadership of the PLO, and then the PA. But in Hamas and other extremist groups, he has found an evil djinni that refuses to be stuffed back into the lamp he has repeatedly rubbed whenever he needed coercive leverage in peace negotiations. I'm reminded of the lyrics from "Wrapped Around Your Finger" by the Police... "I will listem hard to your tuition, you will see it come to its fruition........." "...........I will turn your face to alabaster. When you find your servant is your master". And Arafat has been looking mighty pale over the past years (and it isn't from giving blood for WTC victims), and his Parkinson's Disease is making twitch like a cat with its tongue stuck in a power socket. I have a feeling if he doesn't manage to accomplish something material this time around towards bringing law and order and dealing with extremists (given he has 50,000 men under arms in the PA security force), then all bets are off and he will be removed from power and an interim Palestinian government installed by the Israelis pending future peace talks. Hawk