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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3289)12/3/2001 1:11:40 PM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6932
 
Don't underestimate the power of fund window dressing pushing up the indexes in late December.



To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3289)1/1/2002 8:44:40 PM
From: Jack Hartmann  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6932
 
Portfolio performance for December up 3.3%.
Gilder2001 down 46.8% YTD. Another staggering bad year.
J-blimps down 53.5% since May 25, 2000.
Fuel cells/Alt energy down 54.9% since started in August 2000.
Gorilla Hunters down 63.6% since December 3, 2000. Ouch.
OC-192 down 73.2% since started in Mid-February 2001. Worst of all.
Long timers
MDT - $47.28 to 51.21. Up 8.3%
ORCL - $14.03 to 13.81 Down 1.5%

2000 Additions
None left.

March Additions
CAT $47.42 to 54.25 Up 14.4%
BGP $19.25 to 19.84. Up 3.0%

Sept addition
NKE $52.99 to 56.24. Up 6.1%
WY $52.85 to 54.08 Up 2.3%
DAL $28.98 to 29.26. Up 0.9%

Oct-Nov Additions
BAC $61.38 to 62.95. Up 2.5%
PFE $43.31 to 39.85. Down 8.6%
NOK $23.01 to 24.53. Up 6.6%

Dec additions
KEM at $18.88 to 17.75. Down 11.8%
VVUS $5.44 to 4.87. Down 10.4%
EPG $38.99 to 45.72. Up 17.2%

Deletions
NTCT $8.86 to 7.95. Down 10.2%
PPRO $1.12 to 1.66. Up 48.2
INGN $4.06 to 3.86. Down 4.9%
XXIA $12.99 to 11.10. Down 14.5%
TXCC $4.01 to 4.77 Up 18.9%

A look if 10K was invested in each stock. 250K Model starts anew each month.
27 Stocks rotated in January. (270K x 1.080)-270K = $21,600 profit or 8% profit
35 Stocks rotated in February. (350K x 0.79)-350K = $73,521 loss or 21% loss, Down 13% for the year.
30 Stocks rotated in March. (300K x 0.87)-300K = $39,000 loss or 13% loss, Down 26% for the year.
18 Stocks rotated in April. (180K x 1.216) – 180K = $38,800 profit or 21.6 % profit. Down 5% for the year.
19 Stocks rotated in May (190k 1.0824) – 190K = $15,656 profit or 8.2%. Up 3.2% for the year.
24 Stocks rotated Jun-Sep (240K x 0.829) – 240K = $41,010 loss or 17.1% (-$77,475 total this year or down 31% this year.
27 Stocks rotated Oct-Nov (270K x 1.167) – 270K = $45090 gain or 16.1% (-$32385 total this year or down 16% this year.
18 Stocks rotated Dec (180K x 1.033) – 180K = $5940 gain or 3.3% (-$26445 total this year or down 10.8% this year).

Dow – 9852 to 10221. Up 3.7% for period
NASDAQ – 1930 to 1950. Up 1.1% for period
S&P500 – 1139 to 1148. Up 0.7% for month
Dow – 10787 to 10221. Down 5.2% for the year
NASDAQ – 2470 to 1950. Down 21.0% for the year
S&P500 – 1320 to 1148. Down 13.0% for the year

For the sixth straight year, we beat the S&P 500. Our main goal. The Dow was slightly better, but the summer off really hurt.

For December, we should se some pull back as profit taking occurs. Much closer to the averages so we will be close.

This was right.

For January, the January effect should push averages high.

It was a tough year. When I came back from a much needed break, the portfolio was down 30%, I set trailing stops as the prices went higher. Thanks to all to helped with their picks.

Jack