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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (46526)	12/3/2001 10:42:15 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

<<Considering ALL of the above, I think its REASONABLE to presume that sooner or later things are going to improve. Seems to me time to buy is when things are bad, time to sell is when things are good. For that reason, I would think a prudent investor would begin dollar cost averaging into this market. Thats just my thoughts. Course, I am a LTBH investor. JDN>> John, I basically agree with you. However, since January, 2000, I have become a market timer as well as someone who expects to make serious money during bear markets through S&P "puts". So, the timing of the beginning of the recovery in equities is very important to me. I don't have to get back into equities heavily at or even near what I think is the bottom, but I do have to be comfortable that the worst is mostly over, so I don't get caught buying heavily in a big bear market rally. Correctly, or incorrectly, I am strongly convinced the worst is not over either in the economy or equities. From what I have read, the chances that the real bottom is in are low, and the chances that we are in a bear market rally are high. I believe that about 6 to 9 months before there starts to be a significant improvement in corporate profits, the equity markets will already have set the final bottom as a new bull market begins. Right now, the earliest I think that time will be is probably March to June of 2002 (for the market turn around) and September, 2002 to March, 2003 for the actual economic recovery to begin (or more correctly, to be noticed). I have posted in volume here (again) in the last few days, so I will shut my mouth, listen and read. An advantage I do have is our tax situation as about 90% of our investing assets are in IRAs. I did not have to pay taxes on the all the SUNW I sold almost two years ago. Have I been lucky in the past and could I be totally wrong about the future? ... ABSOLUTELY, and I mean that - I am not even 90% confident that I will be proved correct (70 to 80% confident, maybe). Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I am a full-time amateur investor and recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson