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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (64844)	12/3/2001 11:47:37 AM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 275872

Wanna: I believe AMD is in a far more precarious position than they were last year. You may argue the nature of that, but let's just say I have no desire to argue with you here. Why? It seems to me that a lot of the risks that were present 12 months ago have now been revealed&#133 and most turned out to be less that catastrophic ;-). I don't believe in the doom and gloom scenarios for INTC that some like to portray, but it seems fairly clear that .13µm is not going as easily as some had believed. Northwood delayed a quarter, still no 193nm equipment in sight, high leakage current&#133 The .13µm process node seems to present a lot of problems. Both INTC and TSMC appear to be having at least some unexpected problems. I'm not sure about IBM either way since they could easily hide any problems in their low Power4 volumes and huge amount of fab space. Regardless, instead of 1-2 full quarters of Northwood vs .18µm Athlon, it will be < 1 full quarter - and still without the 193nm SVG equipment for Intel. -fyo

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (64844)	12/3/2001 12:01:49 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

wanna bmw: "Also, I believe AMD is in a far more precarious position than they were last year. You may argue the nature of that, but let's just say I have no desire to argue with you here." It's all relative...If AMD's position is precarious compared to one year ago, then INTC's is(you fill in the blanks here!!!)

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (64844)	12/3/2001 1:07:28 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 275872

wbmw, . I normally don't like posting in the moderated thread any more?? That looks like a provocative comment. In any event your comment about AMD is appreciated. All semi makers are waaaay down from last year, so in a sense that comment applies to all of them(precariousness). That blanket statement might be true, but AMD is not in peril. Bill

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (64844)	12/3/2001 1:26:13 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Wanna Re..Also, I believe AMD is in a far more precarious position than they were last year. You may argue the nature of that, but let's just say I have no desire to argue with you here.<<<<<<<<<<<<< In some respects, that certainly is true. One yr ago the hints of the computer slowdown were there, but not as evident, there was no war, and the SP 500 was still humming along. Now we are in recession, exacerbated by Sept 11, with possibly no end in sight to the war. But, relative to Intel, AMD's position is approximately the same. P4, is just starting to sell well, possibly primarily because Intel discontinued PIII. The Athlon XP was again crowned CPU of the yr.; not the new P4. AMD leads in almost all categories in price/performance. AMD's announcement this morning and their mirror bit announcement on flash, showed that AMD can keep up to Intc. in engineering, and their hammer forum was received far better than I could have imagined two yrs ago. We are beginning to see many technical experts believe that hammer will be a force to be contended with; and the Via interview sounded very upbeat for hammer. At its current pace, the P4 isn't likely to be a contender with hammer, as most experts put it up against McKinley, but who knows, maybe Intel will get to .10 um sooner than expected. All in all, Intel I believe has more problems than AMD. P4's speed increases seem to have stalled, and P4 needs .13 just to match xp at .18; but next summer AMD will see both .13 and SOI. And in 2003 Hammer should be here. Unless Intel can fix Itanium and P4 in short order,(assuming there is a fix, which can even performance without even bigger die sizes.) AMD should keep on gaining marketshare and mindshare.