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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9873)	12/4/2001 12:51:43 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Reading through the messages, there seems to be a consensus around here that the economy is starting to show signs of life. I was starting to think this myself, so it is interesting to see that others feel the same way. I guess the first big data point was the strong response to GM's zero percent financing deal. Recently, we've seen a few more, such as the NAPM, today's rise in construction spending, home sales, and data suggesting that retail sales are not quite as bad as feared. Here's a story from yesterday's New York Times suggesting that the PC market may not be as dead as some thought. nytimes.com The story states that Hewlett-Packard sold 20% more PCs over this Thanksgiving weekend than they did last year. That seems like pretty good growth to me. H-p also claims 75% growth in digital cameras and 140 % growth in photo quality printers. The article also says that sales of DVD players, high-definition televisions and video game consoles are better than expected.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9873)	12/4/2001 2:08:40 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

>>I'm surprised the climate is not more bullish out 6 mos. I guess it is getting there. Most hedgies have switched from short selling ing based on fundamentals to just holding cash due to valuations. This was one hell of a slide in terms of the bottom of the 'V' or 'U' or whatever you want to call it... My view is that we are in an earnings 'V' but that the macro-economy is in something that is more 'U-ish'... I don't think most people understand the intricacies of quarterly sequentials... In my view, Q3 saw the smallest deal sizes and lowest close rates in a long time. Q4's deal sizes will tick up and closure rates should tick up creating a nice compare. Q1 is a crucial quarter though and who knows how that is going to turn out... A decent economy in Q1 would cause dramatic upside revisions to full-year 2002 estimates as operating leverage works its way sooner into Wall Street models. Stocks have discounted some of this but I think the risk is relatively limited unless Hamas or Al-Qaeda does something major... nodirtybombsplease by the way, did you see the picture of the American Taliban guy? The guy is from friggin Marin County....