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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (56869)	12/4/2001 5:01:07 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

December 4, 2001 Fed Now Says '02 Recovery to Be Gradual nytimes.com By RICHARD W. STEVENSON with LOUIS UCHITELLE ASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — Federal Reserve officials say they expect a modest and gradual recovery in the economy next year rather than the quick turnaround many investors and forecasters are expecting. That suggests the central bankers are open to at least one further interest rate cut and may keep rates lower for longer than financial markets anticipate. The officials said the recovery could be tempered by a variety of forces, from high levels of consumer and corporate debt to the reluctance of companies to invest in new factories and equipment at a time of uncertainty in the economy and the fight against terrorism. "I am of the opinion that the recovery will not begin until mid-2002," said Anthony M. Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. "I think the forecasters are overly optimistic." Many private economists are predicting that a rebound will begin no later than the spring, and perhaps much earlier. Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm in Valhalla, N.Y., said he expected slightly positive economic growth in the current quarter, after a return to relatively healthy growth rates next year.