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To: sun-tzu who wrote (137122)	12/4/2001 6:47:41 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Swenlin 12/04... <Continuing optimism regarding the tech sector sparked another broad rally led by tech stocks. I thought we might get a day or two more of decline before a rally, but the fact that the rally came early (in terms of ST indicators not being oversold) creates a situation where it doesn't have a lot of room to run, because now ST indicators are approaching overbought levels again. Because of today's rally, I am setting the date for the 10-Week Cycle trough as of 12/3/2001. That is subject to revision, but for now it looks good based on the price low on that date versus the projected date of 11/28/2001. IT indicators may bottom if the rally extends another day, and this will set up the possibility of a blowoff that could give us breakouts on some of the major market indexes -- we could see a replay of the May top. If the market is truly in the beginnings of a new bull phase, the overbought IT condition is meaningless, and we can look for a rally extending into late-March. If you believe that, now is the time to start buying again -- the 10-Week Cycle trough is in, and there could be another four to six weeks of rally before the 20-Week Cycle crest arrives. If you are looking for reasons to be bullish, there they are. As for myself, with IT indicators as overbought as they are, combined with ridiculous valuations and a doubtful economic picture, I just can't climb aboard that train.> --Carl Swenlin