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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (23844)	12/5/2001 12:05:10 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 209892

Chip, I did just a bit of back-testing on the Puetz cycle, only 5 years or so, and found that a solar-lunar eclipse combo produced at least a 10%-15% correction in the Nasdaq every time for the last 5 years or so. Probably the most reliable Puetz combo, from what I can glean from recent history. The Puetz cycle is ideally a window (Dec. 14-31) for tops before crashes, with the crash occurring right around the end of the window, up until two weeks or so afterwards. It has been described as a cycle in which greed can be turned into fear, so heading up into it is probably not bullish. -g- The Carolan turn added to the start of that window is interesting indeed, plus the 72-year cycle, which could be viewed as a proxy for the Kondratieff cycle. New moons are usually bullish, however. This rally sure has gone a whole heckuva lot further than I thought it would. -ng-