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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (151213)	12/5/2001 5:12:14 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

WBMW, re: I agree with you. At this point in time, investors might be a little too* optimistic. This means there will probably be a downside when people's senses come back.* It is easy to overestimate peoples "senses". Take a look at the attached monthly $SOX chart. Note the increases over previous highs, coming out of past semi down cycles. Extrapolate to today. stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyymy[pb50!b200!b70][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26,9] I'm not saying that will happen this time, or that the semi down cycle is over, just throwing out some historical perspective. John