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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (16950)	12/5/2001 8:22:54 PM
From: Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Good Evening Tom: Can I change my vote from 2100's to 1900? After today I still think we will get to 2100's, but we will do it early enough in the month that we sell off down the stretch.(IMO) Regards, BobP P.S. was able to get more AVNT SS AH at 19.25. It doesn't even show it as trading there.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (16950)	12/5/2001 9:07:06 PM
From: Paul A	Respond to of 19633

Dang- your still sticking to your guns eh Tom? I admire that quite a bit.. I still have a hard time dealing with the volatility and more importantly sticking to my original game plan. That will come with time/experience I imagin.. Also my funds are still rather limited, so playing a bit more cautiously while cutting down on profits helps me stay out of trouble I cant afford to get into : ) Besides- I have my mom watching the markets now as well.. Of all the people I know whether its friends/family, she is the only one who takes it serious and feels its more than 'gambling'.. On days like today she waits until about 5-6pm to call me at work and with a real cautious/sympathetic voice she asks 'Wow- what happened? How did you make out?' : ) Mom..

To: Tom Hua who wrote (16950)	12/5/2001 9:20:11 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, FWIW, I covered nothing today myself and continue to add short. Tops on the Nasdaq is at 2093 at the most. 1875 for the end of the year will be very optimistic. I have us in wave C of 4 and C=A at 2093. Plus, 5 waves up are nearly complete in an ending diagonal. The optimistic outlook is a simple retest of the 1385 lows, though maybe not by the end of the year. The pessimistic is where wave 5 down that is coming up is equal to wave 1 at roughyl 1820 points and puts the Nasdaq at about 300 which is pretty close to fair value if you look at P/E's. Wave 3 needs to be the longest and stands at 2660 points which will be fulfilled no matter what.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (16950)	12/5/2001 9:27:12 PM
From: JustTradeEm	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

OK ... count me in that stubborn or really dumb short category ..... haven't covered a thing the past week. Short JDSU, EXTR, BREL < averaging up tomorrow > and AVNT. Shorting VITR at 6, could be there tomorrow ... I'll give my own personal capitulation one more day; hope it's not like today !! JB

To: Tom Hua who wrote (16950)	12/6/2001 3:54:29 AM
From: Ashley800	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

I agreed with you - until today. And I don't agree with the statement that Greenspan doesn't want the markets to get this out of control either. AG is playing the consumer like a puppet. The rate cuts and liquidity are not to get people or businesses to borrow as we know the demand isn't there. Its to create the perception that they alone will jump start the economy (which on their own can not). In anticipation of the "fixed" economy kicking in in 2002, the markets are rallying creating the "wealth effect" (same effect that Greenspan was concerned about in 2000 would overheat the economy - hence the rate increases). The "wealth effect" will cause people to spend more (just as it did in 1999/2000) which in turn will eat up the inventory supply and get businesses buying again. And wammo, the economy is back on track. Sort of a back door fix. The average person spends $881 on Christmas. 99.9% of investors are long the market (seems like everyone except me and about 15 others on this thread). If you have $2,000 in the nasdaq long, with it being up 40% from its lows, Christmas just got paid for. People all of a sudden have this 30-40% more money then they had Oct. 1st, they also pay less for gas (and now heating oil) then they did 5 years ago. They refinanced their mortgage and are saving a few hundred a month there. You (and Greenspan) know they're going to spend it. The consumer's spending will jump start the economy - without ever borrowing at the lower interest rates. (Businesses will eventually take advantage of the lower rates as soon as inventory pipelines become reduced. Then they'll start raising rates to slow it down). Although I'm already down for 1600 on the nas, my guess today would be 2600 and 11,000 on Dow (need that wealth effect!). The only down days between now and the end are profit taking days. My take anyway. Dave PS As soon as I close out all my shorts and go long, you know nasdaq 1600 here we come!