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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick_Barry who wrote (35424)	12/6/2001 12:25:19 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69125

The COMPX tested the major down trend line at 2050 and backed off. This is to be expected given the size of the move the last 2 days and the fact that most people are cautious when a test like this is attempted. It usually does not break through on the first move as people don't believe it. The SOX made a similar move adding credibility to the move. Both the SOX and the COMPX are now overbought, but are not ready to turn over in a major way just yet. There is still some upside left. As long as we don't break 1944 on a re-test I think technically the COMPX can move higher. Remember the fundamental don't justify this move. Intra-day the COMPX attempted to generate a sell signal, but this was negated in the last hour of trading. It could potentially go higher for one more day. As tomorrow is day 3 of the run and the employment numbers are Friday, I would expect a pullback late tomorrow or Friday as traders lock in profits. I would not anticipate though, wait for it to come. The SOX has a clear sell signal intra-day giving support to this. One negative is that the OBV has been negative the last week as the COMPX has consolidated. That means the volume of the down days was higher than on the up days. The break today might have negated this though as it drew institutional investor off the side lines. The above average volume verifies their greater participation in the market. siliconinvestor.com As Lachesis mentioned, we need the heavily weighed stock in the COMPX like CSCO, MSFT, INTC, ORCL and AMAT to reach recovery highs for this move to confirm. From memory that is CSCO 24, INTC 35, MSFT 68,ORCL 20, and AMAT 50. Also watch for the VIX to touch 20 to confirm the sell signal.