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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (25595)	12/6/2001 1:22:35 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Thought the thread might enjoy the question to -- and answer from -- Don Worden, in tonight's download. (If I'm breaking any laws here -- I'm sorry and I won't do it again<g>.) Dear Don, Waiting for this market to go down is like teaching a monkey to talk. You have a plan, you spend a great deal of time at it, if it ever works the profit potential is enormous, and discussing it makes you the center of attention at cocktail parties. But at the end of the day, the monkey still makes the same old noise it always did, so you update your TC2000 charts, run through your watch lists, and then start the dishwasher! What in the world is propping this market up when the best news we get on a good day is that the Surgeon General assures us that there is enough small pox vaccine to inoculate thirty-two percent of the population of Rhode Island? Starting the dishwasher now. Fletch Many people look at this market as an extraordinary advance of twenty-four percent from the September low (using the SP-500 as the reference). I don't see it that way. I see it in the context of the entire bear market. Instead of an extraordinary advance, it becomes a pretty normal bounce from an extremely oversold condition, retracing 37 percent of what was lost. Any large, fast swing – whether up or down – presents excellent opportunities for nimble traders, and there were some good trading profits to be made in the advance. But it wasn't all that easy, and a lot of people lost their shirts trying to be in the right stocks. What propelled the market? I think mostly the horde of money on the sidelines, often afraid of missing the boat. But the market is always difficult, and it always overruns when you expect it least. The absence of another terrorist attack and our quick victory in Afghanistan have allowed for steadily increasing confidence. I personally think it is reaching an overconfidence phase, so far as the market goes. But without trying to solve the war on terrorism, I think it's appropriate to remind Users that the market doesn't go in one direction indefinitely. I think the market is in a fragile condition. All this may be trying to the patience, but this was never a game that rewarded the impatient or those who can't tolerate frustration and ambiguity. To you, Fletch, I say keep those dishes clean, just as you have been doing. -DW In the Clouds at Last So the Dow vaulted over 10,000 and the Nasdaq over 2000. We are now in the range of our best-case scenario. Tentatively, I've been looking at Dow 10,250 as a resistance level to be reckoned with. It was a powerful day. Yesterday I mentioned that out of the blue we suddenly had a plurality of one-point gainers on increasing volume over declining counterparts. It was 111 to 44, a very unusual ratio. Today it was 278 to 64, probably a record (I haven't had time to look). I think the odds are we are in a bull market. I have thought that right along. But we need to see how the market acts going down as well as up. Because the market has always had its ups and downs. And it's due for a significant down.-DW