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To: ild who wrote (137407)	12/6/2001 10:15:40 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Sounds like the Roach is keeping the faith: First of all, lest there be any mistaking the message from the markets, consider the following: As of the 5 December close, the S&P 500 was up 21% from its 21 September lows. The cyclical technology bet is particularly impressive. The Morgan Stanley High Tech Index is up an astounding 54% over this same interval, identical to gains in the semiconductor (SOX) index and far outdistancing the still-impressive 31% increase of the Cyclical Index. Steve Galbraith, our US equity strategist, reckons that technology stocks are now selling at 50 times forward 2002 earnings -- identical to the valuation excess hit at Nasdaq 5,000. Sure, there’s always the possibility that consensus earnings estimates are too low. But as Steve has also noted, even a three-standard-deviation positive surprise in tech earnings (unprecedented in the long history of the market) would leave the multiple of these stocks at about a 50% premium to the overall market. If it looks like a bubble, feels like a bubble, and acts like a bubble, maybe it actually is one … again. He agrees with me that valuations are now rivaling the ones seen at NazDung 5000....only question is when does the rocket fuel run out? I'll start reopening positions next week and ease in over the balance of the month.