Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (137447)	12/6/2001 1:41:14 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>originations should be down sharply<< contrary to wrong <g> opinions, a drop or even flattening out of orginations will knock those for at least 50%

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (137447)	12/6/2001 2:00:01 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

my fave indicator of origination volume (and what the market thinks) is Fidelity National Financial (FNF). These guys are the biggest title insurance players out there. As you guys likely know, even when you re-finance you have to pay a new title insurance fee. FNF is actually an AWESOME business with great cash flow and basically zero credit risk (they do have some residual interests in sercuritizations). they are obviously going to have an off-the-charts quarter here in Q4 (after a whole year of great quarters) and yet the stock trades just above book (granted, about half of book is goodwill from when they bought Chicago Title), at less than 10x EPS, and at about 4-5x the cash from operations they are going to generate this year. So anyway, either (i) FNF is telling us that originations are going to be WAYYYYY down next year; or (ii) FNF is SERIOUSLY mis-priced and a paired trade of long FNF and short some combination of home builders or mortgage originators is in order. Cheers