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Strategies & Market Trends : Moufassa's Lair -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (2309)	12/7/2001 1:24:05 AM
From: James C. Mc Gowan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13660

Dale, re: Fleckensteiner; I saw the Fleck on TV last week in a Bull/Bear debate, cool guy. Also, he said he had covered shorts after 9/11, thinking even dogs oversold, and market would bounce. He also said he WOULD BE SHORTING PC's and SEMI-EQUIPs in near term. Would not name names specifically but we all know which ones. Wonder if he is starting to build positions now in AMAT, NVLS, CPQ, HWP et al. now with the run up? Didn't NVLS just warn no profits for at least next 2 quarters? Guess my ears hear it differently than analysts; upgrades and maximum pumping on semis/equips as we speak. INTC; check out the Reuters news release on SI front page tonight; down a few paragraphs, after all the blather about how they were now going to do SOOO much better,coming in at the high end of prior grossly reduced forecasts, is the 'tell'. The last(calendar) quarter is always the biggest of the year. They're going to come in +3 to +4%, as compared to average up for 4th qtr at +10%. Ergo, if historical best qtr is down 60 to 70%, what will happen in the slowest qtr, the first 3 months of next year? Fleck has his points, esp. about Semi industry; he called the downturn a LONG time ago, I recall. I'd be listening to his take going forward here, not the Street and INTC. James